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ECONOMIC OVERVIEW March 2018
Are they losing steam?

After the highs achieved in January 2018, commodity markets dipped considerably at the start of February, after rebounding back to the same levels seen at the end of 2017. Donald Trump politics aside, the US and Germany posted mixed results, while China looks to make up some ground after Chinese New Year celebrations. The near-term outlook is positive with accelerating growth momentum to continue to 2020, reflecting notable results in Europe, Asia and the US.

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ALUMINIUM April 2018
Aughinish Alumina

UC Rusal's wholly owned 1.9Mtpa Aughinish refinery in Ireland, is the largest alumina producer in Europe. The refinery's favourable proximity to several its owner's smelter operations in Eastern Europe has provided a strong captive demand for this operation.

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COPPER April 2018
Bingham Canyon

Rio Tinto Kennecott’s Bingham Canyon mine is the second largest copper producer in the US. The mine has produced 19Mt of copper throughout its more than 100-year history, and is expected to produce an average 160ktpa of copper in concentrate until approximately 2032 when its Reserves of 2.75Mt contained copper are depleted.

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IRON ORE April 2018
Carajás S11D

The Carajás S11D operation is the largest project that Vale has ever undertaken. Initial studies commenced in 2004, construction began in 2012 and first ore was shipped in January 2017. Final capex is estimated at US$13.9b. Ramp up to full production of 90Mtpa will be completed in 2020. At full production, the project will have the lowest site operating costs in the world based on high mechanisation, ore body shape, size and continuity, low stripping ratio, soft ore and access to grid electrical power.

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LNG April 2018
Petronas FLNG1

The 1.2Mtpa Petronas FLNG1 (Satu) became the world's first commercially operated floating liquefaction facility in 2017 when it shipped its first cargo. The commercialisation of the floating concept sits within Petronas' LNG portfolio, which includes the formidable, 9-train Malaysia LNG. Built to provide a gas-to-market solution for Malaysian gas fields, it is expected to service fields in the Kumang Cluster for at least 20 years.

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METALLURGICAL COAL April 2018
Elga

Elga has the potential to be one of the largest hard coking coal mines in Russia, with over 2.2Bt of reserves and a nameplate capacity of 28Mtpa ROM. As production continues to ramp up in 2018 to ~5.3Mtpa ROM, Elga is anticipated to be cash margin positive for the year and remain economically viable going forward.

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NICKEL April 2018
Ambatovy

The Ambatovy project has been ramping up since its commission in 2012 but has experienced some teething problems. However, in comparison to other fourth-generation high pressure acid leaching (HPAL) facilities, the project has fared well. The limonitic deposit is well suited to an HPAL operation and contains suitable reserves for the project’s operation into 2044.

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OIL REFINERIES April 2018
Dongming

Dongming is the largest independent (teapot) refinery in China and the biggest stakeholder in the US$5bn independent refiner integration project across Shandong province, offering an opportunity to upgrade intermediates by utilising the network's resources.

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STEEL April 2018
Am Gent

ArcelorMittal Gent is a 6.5Mtpa integrated steel plant and forms part of ArcelorMittal Belgium, which consists of ArcelorMittal Gent, Geel, Genk and Liège. Gent benefits from the economies of scale and the production synergies with Geel, Genk and Liege for product diversification and AME estimates the plant places in the lower half of the global cost curve.

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THERMAL COAL April 2018
Adaro

Adaro is the largest single coal mine in the southern hemisphere, generally producing over 50Mtpa of low ash, low sulphur sub-bituminous coal for sale to both export and domestic markets. With economies of scale and a strip ratio of 4–5:1, AME expects Adaro to produce at an FOB cost of US$45/t in 2018, resulting in cash margin positive operations.

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ZINC April 2018
Red Dog

The Red Dog Mine located in the Northwest Arctic Borough of Alaska, US, and is one of the world's largest low-cost producers of zinc. The shallow SEDEX deposits are mined by open-pit and processed by conventional flotation methods. Teck leases the land from the NANA Regional Corporation, one of the 13 Regional Native Corporations in Alaska and pays a royalty of up to 50% to mine the land.

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