OIL & GAS April 2018

Increasing natural gas consumption by LNG exports is expected in the next two years. Most of the price rises in recent months reflects drawdowns in global oil inventory, and falling outputs from Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela. After 2019, futures indicate a bearish trend for oil prices.

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LNG April 2018

The period of 2017 to 2019 will be characterised by upwardly trending gas prices, which could see Henry Hub based pricing rising in the next 18 months, from the number of new liquefaction trains that will be coming online. The Japan, China price could be at the higher end of this scale should there be a tightening of feed gas supplies into Australian LNG plants.

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METALLURGICAL COAL April 2018

With the supply surplus anticipated to triple in 2018, AME is forecasting the contract price for premium low-volatile HCC to fall. As supply-demand dynamics remain relatively unchanged moving into 2019, AME forecasts the premium HCC contract price to decline further.

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OIL REFINERIES April 2018

Global demand for refinery products is estimated to increase by just 0.8% to 2020, but will be outpaced by an upwards shift in capacity of around 0.96%. But this picture does not capture the shift towards complexity, as refiners reconfigure units downstream of distillation to provide greater depth of conversion.

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THERMAL COAL April 2018

Demand will ease following strong imports over the northern hemisphere winter period. The price for thermal coal products from South Africa, Russia and Colombia are anticipated to follow a similar trend.

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IRON ORE April 2018

Structural changes in the Chinese steel industry which include higher proportion of EAF steelmaking as well as increase scrap utilisation in BOF steelmaking have started to impact iron ore demand as recent policies have promoted the prospect of EAF development.

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STEEL April 2018

AME forecasts that steel prices will lose the upward momentum of 2017 and will rationalise lower over the course of 2018 as raw material prices begin to decline and the Chinese supply and demand dynamic normalises.

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COPPER April 2018

A small refined copper market surplus of 112kt is forecast in 2018 on demand growth of 3.0% to 24.37Mt and production growth of 4.0% as output returns to more normal levels after supply disruptions in 2017.

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NICKEL April 2018

Finished nickel demand is forecast to continue growing strongly to be up 7.8% to 2.33Mt in 2018, following a 6.3% increase in 2017. Demand is forecast to lift another 4.2% in 2019. A supply deficit of 80kt of finished nickel is forecast in 2018, compared to a 140kt deficit in 2017.

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ZINC & LEAD April 2018

Prices are expected to slowly decline over the year as refined production increases with rising mine production. A lag will, however, exist between the rise in mine production, refined output, and an increase in metal stocks.

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ALUMINIUM April 2018

Volatility was due to the market factoring in expectations of increasing supply with China’s winter curtailment policy ending mid-March, as well as reactions to growing trade tensions between China and the US.

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