Brent crude traded between US$62.5/bbl - US$67.2/bbl and averaged US$64.9/bbl in April, easing on March prices as lockdown measures in Europe cast doubt over initial expectations of global crude recovery.

AME forecasts spot Asian LNG prices will build steadily in the second half of the year as China, Japan and South Korea seek supply in early moves to re-stock ahead of next winter, after all the supply disruptions from the past months.

On the basis of AME’s global GDP estimate of 5.36%, increasing crude prices and improving refinery throughputs our March and June quarter forecasts for the global average crack spread price is US$12/bbl.

Steel mills around the world are ramping back up and trade flows of coal have adjusted to accommodate China’s import ban on Australian metallurgical coal.

In the next quarter, two nuclear reactors South Korea returned from unplanned outages in April will likely ease the country's reliance on flexible generation from fossil fuels.

Iron ore prices were slightly up and stabilised in March, with lump premium reaching record highs once again. Iron ore prices in March Fe fines 58%, 62%, and 65% are US$145/t, up 1.1%; US$167/t, up 0.9%; US$193/t, up 1.9%, respectively m-o-m.

AME expects prices to cool modestly after a strong run-up. China's rebar price for the March 2021 quarter averaged US$617/t, up 15.1%. AME’s average rebar forecast in China for the June 2021 quarter is US$585/t, down 5.2% q-o-q.

Copper hit a 10-year high above US$10,000/t for the first time in a decade (Apr. 27, 29) as a surge of demand—fuelled by the economic rebound, hefty stimulus, and near-zero interest rates—is outpacing supply.

Periodic supply tightness is a recurring theme for both finished and mined nickel as China’s NPI production capacity shifts from its domestic base to Indonesia.

AME anticipates the strength in pricing seen in the first quarter to continue, with the June quarter supported by supply constraint in the concentrate market.

Despite reports China is planning to release up to 0.5Mt of state reserve stocks, the aluminium price is expected to continue its positive start to the year in the June quarter.

Gold prices could stage potential recovery in the second half of the year as inflationary pressures cool off and bond yields ease.