Prices are expected to keep on going down over the short term, heavily impacting Zambian and DRC operations. Glencore in particular has invested a large amount of money in almost doubling their production capacity in the Congo and has already begun to cut workers at some operations as margins shrink considerably—the company is also still dogged by a reputation hit after they accidentally shipped radioactive cobalt in 2018. Some producers feel that cobalt prices are near their bottom, but this may be hope, rather than firm analysis.

Belarus’s president announced in May that it was seeking compensation following the Druzhba pipeline oil organochloride contamination. The contamination was a major blow to Russia’s economy; the country’s Finance Ministry subsequently expects to see a rise in Russia’s oil export duty to US$110.4 per tonne in June, up from US$/t104.6 in May.

The LNG industry continues to see rapid development, with large-scale projects attracting investments from major multinational companies. Venture Global LNG and Stonepeak Infrastructure, for instance, have sealed an agreement for Stonepeak to provide a US$1.3bn equity investment in Venture’s under-development 10Mtpa Calcasieu Pass LNG export facility in Louisiana.

Despite the downward trend in semi-soft coking coal (SSCC) prices, Nippon Steel has agreed to SSCC prices of US$129/t free on board (fob) Australia with a New South Wales producer in Q2, down from their previous quarter settlement price of US$132/t fob. This came as a surprise as the market expected to see a much lower settlement price amid low coking coal prices.

Chevron USA closed its US$350m purchase of Brazil’s Petrobras America’s Pasadena refining system in May, with the deal adding 110,000bblpd of refining capacity to the company’s portfolio. In addition to this, the Pasadena refining system includes direct pipeline connections to industry up and downstream, connections to major pipelines, and water access to receive and ship cargoes of crude and refined products.

Norway’s Parliament approved a plan in June to no longer invest in companies that mine over 20Mtpa of thermal coal or generate 10GW of power from coal, in a bid to divest from fossil fuels.

Vale’s tailings dam concerns appear to have stabilized, with ongoing concerns about potential further dam breaches largely alleviated. The most recent and pressing concern—the stability of the mine pit and the Sul Superior waste dam at its Gongo Soco mine—appears to also be alleviating, with only a small portion of the site’s mine wall seeing a gradual movement.

Steel prices have continued their gradual decline in June, with Chinese prices universally trending downwards and many EU prices either remaining steady or posting slight increases—ones that do little to gain back losses made over the past six months. European prices may not remain high, as reduced demand—indicated by falling industrial orders and lowered European exports—could feasibly outweigh the upwards price pressure of curtailed capacity from some major steelmakers.

Washington has applied additional sanctions on Iranian goods—including copper—after Iran threatened that it would resume uranium enrichment within 60 days if other countries did not step in to oppose to current oil and gas sanctions.

The continued decrease in prices, while a short-term trend, is still likely to cause discomfort for some investors who are looking to restart idled nickel operations.

China continues to set the tone for zinc demand, as the country is limiting smelter production in a bid to improve air quality in many of its provinces. This campaign saw the country exporting zinc, despite being a large zinc miner itself; last year, China produced 4.4Mt of zinc metal in concentrate but produced 5.8Mt of finished zinc. However, the current slowdown in the country’s economy, along with the supply deficit, continues to push zinc prices down.

For the first time in almost two years, European aluminium prices have crossed over and remained at a higher point that Asian prices: AME's Asian price average for May sits at US$1,834.73/t, while AME's European price average sits at US$1,774.11/t. Prices have been narrowing the gap since January, and April saw a difference in averages of just US$13/t, with prices crossing over in the last weeks of the month as European prices dipped below the US$1,800/t mark.