Prices are expected to keep on going down over the short term, heavily impacting Zambian and DRC operations. Glencore in particular has invested a large amount of money in almost doubling their production capacity in the Congo and has already begun to cut workers at some operations as margins shrink considerably—the company is also still dogged by a reputation hit after they accidentally shipped radioactive cobalt in 2018. Some producers feel that cobalt prices are near their bottom, but this may be hope, rather than firm analysis.

Many factors have come together to restrict oil supply during 2019. Despite the restarting of Libya's largest oil field standing out as a significant addition to production, the overall supply situation is looking constrained. Canada's ongoing issues with a lack of export capacity, sanctions on Iran and limited waivers lowering oil sales, OPEC's cuts to prevent further price drops, and ongoing Venezuelan issues—including sanctions, machinery and refinery failures, and power outages—have all thrown additional uncertainty into the market.

Australia continues to grapple with the logistics of domestic gas supply. With its south-eastern region facing the dual prospect of sustained demand and decreased supply from southern gas fields over the next few years, the country faces a couple of possible solutions: an increase to its gas pipeline network, or the installation of at least two LNG import terminals—a strange prospect for a country that is likely to beat out Qatar this year as the largest LNG exporter and rake in more than $51bn via exports.

ArcelorMittal has made public plans to reduce its steel production in Europe as a temporary measure, responding to weakened demand for its product in Europe as imports rise. The world’s largest steelmaker will idle around 3Mtpa of capacity, although it has not set a firm date for the resumption of said capacity.

After remaining stubbornly low throughout January, however, RBOB Gasoline and US Diesel prices saw a strong resurgence in February, reaching US$63.65/bbl and US$82.40/bbl respectively. Crude oil prices have begun to stabilise as OPEC and Friends work to keep global production at a restricted level and counteract rising US production.

While medium-term outlooks remain optimistic, April was characterised by low prices, lower Asian and European demand, and a series of high-profile companies suffering coal-related losses or undergoing coal divestments.

May looks to see prices increase again as the market responds to yet more disruption—namely from Brazil. Bolstered margins for steel producers are assisting demand, particularly in China, and the anticipated increases in infrastructure and construction—spurred on by government policy—are having an upwards effect on the market.

The steel industry continues to see a series of significant-scale mergers and sales. With the addition of yet more creditor challenges, ArcelorMittal is still unable to absorb Essar Steel assets—bringing to mind nothing more than a hungry dog being teased by the repeated offering and withdrawal of a steak.

Vedanta Resources’ Tuticorin smelter in India has been knocked back. AME now assumes the Tuticorin will remain shut and the associated Silvassa refinery will continue running at curtailed capacity by processing imported anode for most of 2019, with the restart of Tuticorin to be permitted in late 2019.

Negotiations for the sale of a majority stake in the Bindura Nickel Corporation have fallen through, leaving the anticipated deal in the dust. BNC, and its parent company Asa Resource Group, had advised shareholders that negotiations were currently ongoing for the purchase of a significant interest in BNC by an unnamed third party.

Over this month the global macro-economic environment indicated signs of improvement as China announcing its PMI recovering back up to 50.5, beating the market expectation of 49.5. The temporary trade war truce between China and the US continues to stimulate the market, leading to the rise of market price for most base metals.

The US has slapped further tariffs on Iran, this time covering the country's iron, steel, copper and aluminium exports. Combined, these cover around 10% of the country's exports, and provide yet another political lever. Aluminium by itself, however, might not be that strong of a lever.